Allan Behm’s talk will examine recent events in Venezuela as both symptomatic and emblematic of a fundamental change in the architecture and operation of international norms of behaviour. The absence of law and rules is the precursor of global lawlessness – making the world more dangerous and less predictable. President Trump’s restatement of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting America’s domination of the western hemisphere, means that all outside powers are excluded and that nations within the western hemisphere are subject to American direction. It also implicitly accepts China as a peer power, with similar prerogatives in the eastern hemisphere.
The consequences for Australia are profound. First, America is no longer the world’s superpower: there are now two global powers, America and China, with Russia seeking dominance over Europe. Second, the expectation that Australia can live securely under America’s protection is moot, to say the least. Australia must now accept that China is strategically dominant in Asia, the region in which we live. Third, a lawless world brings with it heightened risk of random internal breakdown and civil unrest, and at the same time the risk of cross-border military conflict – a kind of Asia-Pacific “wild east”. And fourth, in all of this, global lawlessness is dangerous for Australia and countries like us which depend on law, agreements, treaties and institutions for their prosperity and security.
Australia’s best interests are served by a vigorous return to multilateral diplomacy focusing on the many like-minded countries that need to work together in their own interests. Just as Doc Evatt played a transformative role in the creation of the UN and the drafting of its Charter in the aftermath of the WW2 catastrophe, so Australia needs to saddle up again for an energetic and transformative diplomacy. And in all of this, AUKUS is irrelevant.
Allan Behm is an Australian international and security policy expert, currently Head of the International and Security Affairs Program at The Australia Institute, with nearly 30 years’ experience in the Australian Public Service across diplomatic, defence, national security and policy roles. He has served as Chief of Staff to Minister Greg Combet and senior advisor to the Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, is a respected media commentator and public speaker, and is the author of several books on politics and strategy, including No, Minister (MUP, 2015), No Enemies No Friends (Upswell, 2022) and The Odd Couple (Upswell, 2024). His work focuses on international relations, defence strategy, and the policy-politics interface.
Tickets: https://www.trybooking.com/DIQNA